澳洲股指 - 技术分析(16/02/2008)

A picture is worth a thousand words. Let's look at the weekly chart of XAO.



Basically it's a fairly clear case of XAO turning from long term uptrend to long term down trend. Both the MACD and money flow indicators have foretell the coming of downtrend.

From late July 2007, money flow had already diverged from index value. And the MACD indictor diverge with index value in Oct 2007. With both indicators diverging from index value the case was fairly strong for being cautious.

But where to from here? How low will it go?
Look at the chart below. Index value currently is sitting on 150 weekly WMA (weighted moving avearge).
From a chartist point of view 150 week WMA is an important support. If index value drops below 150 weekly WMA then it will then test the upper limit of the long term trend channel. Failing to find support at that level will mean it drop back to the long term trend channel.



So where is the long term trend channel?
From the chat below it looks like the channel is between 3900 and 5400.